Guru's Sunday Morning Look at Locks, Bubbles and WNIT Hopefuls
By Mel Greenberg
Here after Saturday’s games is a look at an attempt to guess the at-large hunt.
Teams already AQ’d not spoken to for obvious reasons. If a conference seems one-bid, the Guru won’t mention candidates for obvious reasons. If it seemed one-bid conference team a bubble because of upset will mention though some will be moot
This is also being done more on the conservative side of things to look at total numbers so some teams will be called bubble but are closer to locks.
The Guru has decided that Arizona State will be chosen by the committee. More thorough stuff to be done when everything is over.
After this, the Guru will look at a projected WNIT contender field
American Lock – Louisville. Bubbles - South Florida, Rutgers. L-1 B-2
Atlantic Coast Locks – Duke, Md., NC St., UNC, Syr., Fl St., Ga Tech: L-7
Atlantic Ten Locks - - Dayton. Bubble – St. Joseph’s. L-1 B-1
Big Ten Locks – Mich St. PSU. Iowa, Purdue. B-Minnesota: L-4 B-1
B12 Locks – W. Va., Texas. Okla St. Bubbles-Iowa St, Okla. L-3 B-2
Big East Locks – St. John’s. No bubbles
CAA Bubble – James Madison if don’t win the CAA B-1
MAC Bubble – Bowling Green and Cent. Michigan. B-1
PAC-12 Locks -- Stanford, Ore. St., California, Arizona St. L-4
SEC Locks – S.C., Tex A&M, Ky, LSU B-Ga, Vandy, Florida. L-4, B-3
WCC Bubble – BYU B-1
Totals: Locks: 25. Bubbles: 10 and three waggles or two depending on CAA.
So we’re perhaps three or four over – quite a small number. This will be altered Sunday night after everything completed and we have the definite situation.
But here is the RPI (Spt Ill thru Sat) and SOS (RT thru Fri) number, and Sagarin (thru Fri), of the bubble field.
Additionally, the Guru was told by a very good person with experience at first hand at in the room, that Winning Average RPI and Losing Average RPI is a key number since teams are compared in a bunch, not just one or two teams.
Same with nonconference rpi and nonconference sos.
So if someone can direct the Guru to an RPI simulation with those numbers it would be appreciated.
The Guru was also told SOS is lesser but still important since all SOS amounts to is the won-loss percentage of opponents.
St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) RPI 22 SOS 34
Bowling Green (27-4, MAC 17-1) RPI 32 SOS 146
BYU (26-7, WCC 14-4) RPI 38 SOS 99
Cent. Michigan (20-11, MAC 16-2) RPI 40 SOS 59
Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) RPI 41 SOS 35
Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) RPI 43 SOS 18
Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10 RPI 45 SOS 22
Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) RPI 46 SOS 43
*James Madison (26-5 CAA 15-1) RPI 49 SOS 188
Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) RPI 52 SOS 79
South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) RPI 58 SOS 37
Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) RPI 59 SOS 18
Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) RPI 63 SOS 50
Bubbles by Sagarin Ratings Rank Order
Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) 19
Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) 22
*James Madison (26-5 CAA 15-1) 25
South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) 32
Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) 34
Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) 37
Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) 38
Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10) 39
Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) 43
St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) 46
BYU (26-7, WCC 14-4) 48
Bowling Green (27-3, MAC 17-1) 52
Cent. Michigan (20-11, MAC 16-2) 74
NIT Projector
AQs- 32
AEC – Stony Brook
AAC – South Florida, Rutgers or SMU pending NCAA
A10 – St. Bonaventure
ACC – Miami
ASun – Florida Gulf Coast or Stetson pending Sunday
B12 – Iowa State, Oklahoma or TCU
Big East – Creighton
Big Sky – Southern Utah
Big South – High Point
Big Ten – Minnesota or Michigan
Big West – Cal-Poly
CAA – Delaware subject to change pending tourney outcome
C-USA – Southern Miss
Horizon – Wright State subject to change
Ivy – Princeton
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Bowling Green
MEAC – N. Carolina A&T
MVC = Unknown
MWC – Colorado State
NEC – Robert Morris or Mount St. Mary’s
OVC – Belmont
Pac-12 – Arizona State or Washington
Patriot – Navy
SEC – Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt or Auburn
Southern – Furman
Southland – Stephen F. Austin or Lamar
SWAC – Southern U.
Summit –South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Arkansas State
WCC – BYU or Pacific
WAC – CS Bakersfield
WNIT At-Large Candidates
AEC: New Hampshire
AAC: South Florida or Rutgers or SMU
A-10: George Washington, Duquesne, VCU
Big 12: Pending NCAA, Iowa St, Oklahoma, TCU
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty, Campbell
Big Ten: Michigan, Indiana
Big West: Hawaii
CAA: Charleston
C-USA: UTEP, Tulane, East Carolina
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Fairfield, Quinnipiac
MAC: Cent. Michigan
MEAC: Savannah State
MVC: Unknown
MWC: Nevada, Wyoming
NEC: St. Francis, Brooklyn
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
PAC-12: Washington, Washington State, Colorado
Patriot: American U., Holy Cross
SEC: Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, NCAA leftovers take precedence
Southern: None
Southland: Cent. Arkansas, Northwestern St.
SWAC: Texas Southern
Summit: IUPUI
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
WCC: Pacific, San Diego, St. Mary’s
WAC: Grand Canyon
Rough Long List for Now: 50 needs to be cut to 32
That’s it till tweeting from CAA final down here in suburban Washington.
=-- Mel
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
Here after Saturday’s games is a look at an attempt to guess the at-large hunt.
Teams already AQ’d not spoken to for obvious reasons. If a conference seems one-bid, the Guru won’t mention candidates for obvious reasons. If it seemed one-bid conference team a bubble because of upset will mention though some will be moot
This is also being done more on the conservative side of things to look at total numbers so some teams will be called bubble but are closer to locks.
The Guru has decided that Arizona State will be chosen by the committee. More thorough stuff to be done when everything is over.
After this, the Guru will look at a projected WNIT contender field
American Lock – Louisville. Bubbles - South Florida, Rutgers. L-1 B-2
Atlantic Coast Locks – Duke, Md., NC St., UNC, Syr., Fl St., Ga Tech: L-7
Atlantic Ten Locks - - Dayton. Bubble – St. Joseph’s. L-1 B-1
Big Ten Locks – Mich St. PSU. Iowa, Purdue. B-Minnesota: L-4 B-1
B12 Locks – W. Va., Texas. Okla St. Bubbles-Iowa St, Okla. L-3 B-2
Big East Locks – St. John’s. No bubbles
CAA Bubble – James Madison if don’t win the CAA B-1
MAC Bubble – Bowling Green and Cent. Michigan. B-1
PAC-12 Locks -- Stanford, Ore. St., California, Arizona St. L-4
SEC Locks – S.C., Tex A&M, Ky, LSU B-Ga, Vandy, Florida. L-4, B-3
WCC Bubble – BYU B-1
Totals: Locks: 25. Bubbles: 10 and three waggles or two depending on CAA.
So we’re perhaps three or four over – quite a small number. This will be altered Sunday night after everything completed and we have the definite situation.
But here is the RPI (Spt Ill thru Sat) and SOS (RT thru Fri) number, and Sagarin (thru Fri), of the bubble field.
Additionally, the Guru was told by a very good person with experience at first hand at in the room, that Winning Average RPI and Losing Average RPI is a key number since teams are compared in a bunch, not just one or two teams.
Same with nonconference rpi and nonconference sos.
So if someone can direct the Guru to an RPI simulation with those numbers it would be appreciated.
The Guru was also told SOS is lesser but still important since all SOS amounts to is the won-loss percentage of opponents.
St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) RPI 22 SOS 34
Bowling Green (27-4, MAC 17-1) RPI 32 SOS 146
BYU (26-7, WCC 14-4) RPI 38 SOS 99
Cent. Michigan (20-11, MAC 16-2) RPI 40 SOS 59
Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) RPI 41 SOS 35
Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) RPI 43 SOS 18
Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10 RPI 45 SOS 22
Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) RPI 46 SOS 43
*James Madison (26-5 CAA 15-1) RPI 49 SOS 188
Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) RPI 52 SOS 79
South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) RPI 58 SOS 37
Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) RPI 59 SOS 18
Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) RPI 63 SOS 50
Bubbles by Sagarin Ratings Rank Order
Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) 19
Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) 22
*James Madison (26-5 CAA 15-1) 25
South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) 32
Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) 34
Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) 37
Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) 38
Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10) 39
Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) 43
St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) 46
BYU (26-7, WCC 14-4) 48
Bowling Green (27-3, MAC 17-1) 52
Cent. Michigan (20-11, MAC 16-2) 74
NIT Projector
AQs- 32
AEC – Stony Brook
AAC – South Florida, Rutgers or SMU pending NCAA
A10 – St. Bonaventure
ACC – Miami
ASun – Florida Gulf Coast or Stetson pending Sunday
B12 – Iowa State, Oklahoma or TCU
Big East – Creighton
Big Sky – Southern Utah
Big South – High Point
Big Ten – Minnesota or Michigan
Big West – Cal-Poly
CAA – Delaware subject to change pending tourney outcome
C-USA – Southern Miss
Horizon – Wright State subject to change
Ivy – Princeton
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Bowling Green
MEAC – N. Carolina A&T
MVC = Unknown
MWC – Colorado State
NEC – Robert Morris or Mount St. Mary’s
OVC – Belmont
Pac-12 – Arizona State or Washington
Patriot – Navy
SEC – Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt or Auburn
Southern – Furman
Southland – Stephen F. Austin or Lamar
SWAC – Southern U.
Summit –South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Arkansas State
WCC – BYU or Pacific
WAC – CS Bakersfield
WNIT At-Large Candidates
AEC: New Hampshire
AAC: South Florida or Rutgers or SMU
A-10: George Washington, Duquesne, VCU
Big 12: Pending NCAA, Iowa St, Oklahoma, TCU
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty, Campbell
Big Ten: Michigan, Indiana
Big West: Hawaii
CAA: Charleston
C-USA: UTEP, Tulane, East Carolina
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Fairfield, Quinnipiac
MAC: Cent. Michigan
MEAC: Savannah State
MVC: Unknown
MWC: Nevada, Wyoming
NEC: St. Francis, Brooklyn
OVC: Eastern Kentucky
PAC-12: Washington, Washington State, Colorado
Patriot: American U., Holy Cross
SEC: Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, NCAA leftovers take precedence
Southern: None
Southland: Cent. Arkansas, Northwestern St.
SWAC: Texas Southern
Summit: IUPUI
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
WCC: Pacific, San Diego, St. Mary’s
WAC: Grand Canyon
Rough Long List for Now: 50 needs to be cut to 32
That’s it till tweeting from CAA final down here in suburban Washington.
=-- Mel
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
posted by Mel Greenberg | 7:08 AM
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