Guru's NCAA Radar: Checking At-Large Hopes for NCAA and WNIT Field

(Guru note: Under this post are two more -- one a schedule to track to be a companion to this and the other some musings by Mike Siroky on waiting for the field in the SEC and Big10 neighborhoods. )

By Mel Greenberg

Here is a look at an attempt to guess the at-large hunt.

Teams already AQ’d are not spoken to for obvious reasons. If a conference seems one-bid, the Guru won’t mention candidates for obvious reasons. If seemed that conference is a one-bid pony but upset possibilities causes action on the bubble there will be a mention.

This is also being done more on the conservative approach to look at total numbers so some teams will be called bubble but are probably closer to locks as you will see on the bubble chart.

After this the Guru will look at the projected WNIT field

Locks and Bubbles by Conference

American Lock – Louisville. Bubbles - South Florida, Rutgers. L-1 B-2
Atlantic Coast Locks – Duke, Md., NC St., UNC, Syr., Fl St., Ga Tech: L-7
Atlantic Ten Locks - - Dayton. Bubble – St. Joseph’s. L-1 B-1
Big Ten Locks – Mich St. PSU. Iowa, Purdue. B-Minnesota: L-4 B-1
B12 Locks – W. Va., Texas. Okla St. Bubbles-Iowa St, Okla. L-3 B-2
Big East Locks – St. John’s. No bubbles
CAA Bubble – James Madison if don’t win the CAA B-1
C-USA Pending Lock – Middle Tennessee if don’t win conference.
MAC Bubble – Bowling Green/Cent. Michigan. B-1
PAC-12 Locks -- Stanford, Ore. St., California. Bubble-Arizona St. L-3 B-1
SEC Locks – S.C., Tex A&M, Ky, LSU B-Ga, Vandy, Florida. L-4, B-3
WCC Bubble – BYU B-1

Totals: Locks: 23 (24 if Middle Tenn. Loses) Bubbles: 11 and 2 or three waggles.

So we’re perhaps three or four over – quite a small number. This will be altered Sunday night after everything is completed and we have the definite situation.

But here is the RPI (as of March 12 from Sports Illustrated site) and strength of schedule (SOS-from RealTime RPI) number of the bubble field.

Additionally, the Guru was told by a very knowledgeable person with experience first hand at being in the room that Winning Average RPI and Losing Average RPI is a key number since teams are compared in a bunch, not just one or two teams.

Same with nonconference rpi and nonconference sos.

So if someone can direct the Guru to an RPI simulation with those numbers it would be appreciated and he will plug them in.

The Guru was also told SOS is a lesser factor, though still important, since all that SOS amounts to is the won-loss percentage of opponents.

The Bubbles of Which Some Are Closer to Locks

St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) RPI 22 SOS 35

*Bowling Green (27-3, MAC 17-1) RPI 27 SOS 147

Arizona State (22-9, PAC12 11-7) RPI 33 SOS 65

*Cent. Michigan (20-10, MAC 16-2) RPI 35 SOS 66

BYU (26-6, WCC 14-4) RPI 39 SOS 98

Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) RPI 42 SOS 34

Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) RPI 44 SOS 15

Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10 RPI 45 SOS 21

Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) RPI 46 SOS 44

*James Madison (25-5 CAA 15-1) RPI 50 SOS 163

Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) RPI 53 SOS 79

South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) RPI 57 SOS 37

Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) RPI 59 SOS 19

Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) RPI 61 SOS 50

WNIT Projector
AQs- 32

AEC – Stony Brook
AAC – South Florida, Rutgers or SMU pending NCAA
A10 – St. Bonaventure
ACC – Miami
ASun – Unknown right now
B12 – Iowa State, Oklahoma or TCU
Big East – Creighton
Big Sky – Unknown
Big South – High Point
Big Ten – Minnesota or Michigan
Big West – Unknown
CAA – Probably Delaware subject to change
C-USA – Southern Miss subject to change
Horizon – Wright State subject to change
Ivy – Princeton
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Unkinown
MEAC – Unknown
MVC = Unknown
MWC – Unknown
NEC – Robert Morris or Mount St. Mary’s
OVC – Unknown
Pac-12 – Arizona State or Washington
Patriot – Navy
SEC – Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt or Auburn
Southern – Furman
Southland – Unknown
SWAC – Unknown
Summit –South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Unkinown
WCC – BYU or Pacific
WAC - Unknown

WNIT At-Large Candidates

AEC: New Hampshire
AAC: South Florida or Rutgers or SMU
A-10: George Washington, Duquesne, VCU
ACC: None
ASun: Unknown right now
Big 12: Pending NCAA, Iowa St, Oklahoma, TCU
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Marquette
Big Sky: Unknown
Big South: Liberty, Campbell
Big Ten: Michigan, Indiana
Big West: Unknown
CAA: Charleston
C-USA: UTEP, Tulane, East Carolina
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago pending
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Fairfield, Quinnipiac
MAC: Unknown
MEAC: Unknown
MVC: Unknown
MWC: Unknown
NEC: Unknown
OVC: Unknown
PAC-12: Washington, Washington State, Colorado
Patriot: Unknown
SEC: Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, NCAA leftovers take precedence
Southern: None
Southland: Unknown
SWAC: None
Summit: IUPUI
Sun Belt: Unknown
WCC: Pacific, San Diego, St. Mary’s
WAC: Unknown

Rough Long List for Now: 29.

That’s it till tweeting from CAA quarterfinals down here in suburban Washington.

=-- Mel



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