The Guru's NCAA Radar: Update Checking on NCAA and WNIT hopefuls

Finding 32 At-Large -- Update

By Mel Greenberg

Here after Friday’s games is a look at an attempt to guess the at-large hunt.

Teams already AQ’d not spoken to for obvious reasons. If a conference seems one-bid, the Guru won’t mention candidates for obvious reasons. If seemed one-bid but upset causes bubble will mention.

This is also being done more on the conservative side of things to look at total numbers so some teams will be called bubble but are closer to locks.

After this, the Guru will look at a projected WNIT contender field

American Lock – Louisville. Bubbles - South Florida, Rutgers. L-1 B-2
Atlantic Coast Locks – Duke, Md., NC St., UNC, Syr., Fl St., Ga Tech: L-7
Atlantic Ten Locks - - Dayton. Bubble – St. Joseph’s. L-1 B-1
Big Ten Locks – Mich St. PSU. Iowa, Purdue. B-Minnesota: L-4 B-1
B12 Locks – W. Va., Texas. Okla St. Bubbles-Iowa St, Okla. L-3 B-2
Big East Locks – St. John’s. No bubbles
CAA Bubble – James Madison if don’t win the CAA B-1
C-USA Pending Lock – Middle Tennessee if don’t win conference.
MAC Bubble – Bowling Green and Cent. Michigan. B-1
PAC-12 Locks -- Stanford, Ore. St., California. Bubble-Arizona St. L-3 B-1
SEC Locks – S.C., Tex A&M, Ky, LSU B-Ga, Vandy, Florida. L-4, B-3
WCC Bubble – BYU B-1

Totals: Locks: 23 (24 if Middle Tenn. Loses) Bubbles: 14 and 2 or three waggles.
So we’re perhaps three or four over – quite a small number. This will be altered Sunday night after everything completed and we have the definite situation.

But here is the RPI (Spt Ill) and SOS (RT) number, off two days ago, of the bubble field.

Additionally, the Guru was told by a very good person with experience at first hand at in the room, that Winning Average RPI and Losing Average RPI is a key number since teams are compared in a bunch, not just one or two teams.

Same with nonconference rpi and nonconference sos.

So if someone can direct the Guru to an RPI simulation with those numbers it would be appreciated.

The Guru was also told SOS is lesser but still important since all SOS amounts to is the won-loss percentage of opponents.

St. Joseph’s (22-9 AtlT 10-6) RPI 22 SOS 34
Bowling Green (27-3, MAC 17-1) RPI 32 SOS 145
Arizona State (22-9, PAC12 11-7) RPI 33 SOS 65
BYU (26-7, WCC 14-4) RPI 38 SOS 98
Cent. Michigan (20-11, MAC 16-2) RPI 40 SOS 66
Iowa St (20-10 Bg12 9-9) RPI 41 SOS 35
Vanderbilt (18-12, SEC 7-9) RPI 44 SOS 15
Minnesota (20-12, 8-8 Big10 RPI 45 SOS 21
Georgia (20-11, SEC 7-9) RPI 46 SOS 44
Rutgers (22-9, AAC 12-6) RPI 50 SOS 79
*James Madison (26-5 CAA 15-1) RPI 52 SOS 157
South Florida (19-12, AAC 13-5) RPI 57 SOS 38
Oklahoma (18-14, Bg12 9-9) RPI 59 SOS 18
Florida (19-12, SEC 8-8) RPI 61 SOS 50

NIT Projector
AQs- 32

AEC – Stony Brook
AAC – South Florida, Rutgers or SMU pending NCAA
A10 – St. Bonaventure
ACC – Miami
ASun –
B12 – Iowa State, Oklahoma or TCU
Big East – Creighton
Big Sky – Southern Utah
Big South – High Point
Big Ten – Minnesota or Michigan
Big West – Cal-Poly or Cal-State Northridge
CAA – Delaware subject to change pending tourney outcome
C-USA – Southern Miss subject to change
Horizon – Wright State subject to change
Ivy – Princeton
MAAC – Iona
MAC – Bowling Green subject to change
MEAC – Hampton or N. Carolina A&T
MVC = Unknown
MWC – Colorado State or Fresno State
NEC – Robert Morris or Mount St. Mary’s
OVC – Belmont
Pac-12 – Arizona State or Washington
Patriot – Navy
SEC – Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt or Auburn
Southern – Furman
Southland – Unknown
SWAC – Southern U.
Summit –South Dakota State
Sun Belt – Arkansas State or Western Kentucky
WCC – BYU or Pacific
WAC – Idaho or CS Bakersfield

WNIT At-Large Candidates

AEC: New Hampshire
AAC: South Florida or Rutgers or SMU
A-10: George Washington, Duquesne, VCU
ACC: None
ASun: Unknown right now
Big 12: Pending NCAA, Iowa St, Oklahoma, TCU
Big East: Villanova, Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall
Big Sky: North Dakota or Montana
Big South: Liberty, Campbell
Big Ten: Michigan, Indiana
Big West: Hawaii
CAA: Charleston
C-USA: UTEP, Tulane, East Carolina
Horizon: Illinois-Chicago
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Fairfield, Quinnipiac
MAC: Pending Cent. Michigan, Akron
MEAC: Unknown
MVC: Unknown
MWC: Nevada
NEC: Unknown
OVC: Unknown
PAC-12: Washington, Washington State, Colorado
Patriot: Unknown
SEC: Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, NCAA leftovers take precedence
Southern: None
Southland: Unknown
SWAC: None
Summit: IUPUI
Sun Belt: Unknown
WCC: Pacific, San Diego, St. Mary’s
WAC: Unknown

Rough Long List for Now: 29.

That’s it till tweeting from CAA semifinals down here in suburban Washington.

=-- Mel



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