WNBA: Connecticut Officially Joins San Antonio in the Slide for Stewie Stakes

By Mel Greenberg @womhoopsguru

Connecticut’s wipeout Tuesday night at the hands of host Indiana Fever that earned the home team its 11th straight playoff appearance in the WNBA also officially put the Sun as the third team in the lottery, also known as the Breanna Stewart sweepstakes in honor of the University of Connecticut’s and nation’s top senior this winter who then becomes eligible for the WNBA draft in April.

But sometime to be determine in the fall will be likely known where the native of Syracuse will be heading once the lottery order for best percentages out of the ping pong ball permutations is decided.

So far the San Antonio Silver Stars and Connecticut are officially in the mix with the Atlanta Dream one loss or Washington Mystics win away from becoming the third participant.

The Seattle Storm is the fourth most likely team but technically the Los Angeles Sparks in the West are alive until they make the playoffs and in that direction the magic number for the Californians is three.

Ironically, Thursday night they host Washington, which is still holding the magic number of one for a third straight postseason appearance.

This week with the field reduced the Guru incorporated in a separate set of standings the new WNBA adjustment that calls for a combined two-year record to determine the reverse order of worst-to-best to determine the lineup of the four teams.

And just as at the other end of the playoff-bound race where there are tight races for seedings, there is a battle for the top spot or worst overall among Seattle, San Antonio and Connecticut.

The Sun with three games left will have trouble catching Seattle if the Storm lose more than not in their remaining five games but starting with a head-to-head meeting in San Antonio Friday night, they mathematically might catch the Silver Stars to at least share the number two percentages.

On the other hand Seattle and San Antonio for overall number one in the lottery could go to the final night of the regular season a week from Sunday when the two meet in Seattle.

The two-year combined records of each of the three remaining with number of games left show: Seattle at 42-21 with five left; San Antonio at 41-23 with four left; and Connecticut at 39-26 with three left.

Incidentally if Washington loses all its remaining games that conclude at Atlanta a week from Sunday and Atlanta wins all its games, the Mystics will drop into the lottery because the two teams will be tied on season record and the Dream with two of its remaining games against Washington will win the 2015 series between the two.

The tables below have been readjusted with Indiana out of the mix and while they are also part of the charts, here is what’s left in terms of the schedules for the five just discussed.

Seattle 42-21 vs. Tulsa-Thu; @Chicago-Sun; @Minn-Tues; vs. Minn-Fri; vs. San Antonio Sunday. San Antonio 41-23 vs. Conn-Fri; vs. Phoenix-Sat; @Tulsa-Tues; @Seattle-Sun.
Connecticut 39-26 @San Antonio-Fri; @New York-Wed; vs. Chicago-Sun.

Atlanta 33-31 vs. Washington-Sun; vs. Los Angeles-Wed; @Indiana-Fri; @Washington-Sun.
Wash 31-32 @Los Angeles-Thu; @Atlanta-Sun; vs. Indiana-Tues; @New York-Fri; vs. Atlanta-Sun.

While Connecticut is projecting third best, the Sun, if they don’t land 1-2 could be bumped to fourth if the team with the fourth best odds gets lucky and gets ahead while the worst team doesn’t land 1-2 and then, under the rule, is guaranteed the third slot.

These are the ways Connecticut gets bumped.

Team 4, Team 2, TEAM 1, Team 3
Team 2, Team 4, TEAM 1, Team 3

The other team guaranteed third slots would be

Team 4, Team 3, TEAM 1, Team 2
Team 3, Team 4, TEAM 1, Team 2
Team 2, Team 3, TEAM 1, Team 4
Team 3, Team 2, TEAM 1, Team 4

Now, here are today’s updates and this will update again sometime Friday morning since we will be in New York for the Chicago game Thursday night.

Slide For Stewie Standings
(Thru Wed., Sept. 2)
Team L W *-GBO *-GBL MNL

%-San Ant. 23-7 -- --
Seattle 20-9 2.5 -- MNL- 3
#Los Angeles 18-12 5 2.5
Atlanta 18-12 5.0 -- MNL-1
%-Conn. 18-13 5.5 -- --
#Washington 13-16 9.5 4.5

*- GBO is Overall Games Behind Worst Record. GBL is Games Behind Lottery Slot, MNL is Magic Number to Clinch Lottery
#-Top Team Below Lottery Cut in Each Division
%-Clinched 2016 Lottery Draw

Combined Divisions Adjusted Lottery Positions With Two-Year Records
(Thru Wed., Sept. 2)
Team L W *-GBO *-GBL MNL GMS LEFT

Seattle 42-21 -- -- MNL-3 Remain-5
%-San Ant. 41-23 1.5 – Remain-4
Conn. 39-26 4.5 – MNL-1 Remain-3
#-LA 36-28 6.5 2.5 Remain-4
Atlanta 33-31 10.0 – MNL-1 Remain-4
#-Wash 31-32 11.5 Remain-5

%-Clinched 2016 Lottery Draw #-Team Below Cut
MNL-Magic Number for Slot

Remaining Games Among Lottery Contenders
(Thru Mon., Aug. 31)

Seattle 42-21 (5) Tulsa-Th; @Chi-Sun; @-Minn-Tu; Minn-Fri; !-San Antonio-Sun

San Ant. 41-23 (4) !-Conn-Fri; Phnx-Sat; @Tulsa-Tues; !-@Seattle-Sun

Conn. 39-26 (4) !-@San Ant.-Fri; @-New York-Wed; Chi-Sun

#-LA 36-28 (4) !-Wash-Thur; Tulsa-Sun; !-@Atl-Wed; @-Phnx-Fri

Atl 33-21 (5) !-Wash-Fri; !-LA-Wed; Ind-Fri; @-Wash-Sun

#-Wash 30-32 (6) !-@LA-Thur; !-@Atl-Fri; Ind-Tues; @-NY-Fri; !-Atl-Sun

#-Ind (5) @-Minn-Fri; !-@Wash-Tues; @-Atl-Fri; NY-Sun

!-A head-to-head Stewie game.

Results Five Points Or Less
Most Recent at Top Thru Mon., Aug. 31
!-Games Against Other Lottery Contenders

New York 80, Atlanta 75, ovt.
Connecticut 72, Chicago 68
Chicago 98, Atlanta 96
Phoenix 81, Connecticut 80
!-Los Angeles 81 Indiana 79
Indiana 80, New York 79
Chicago 66, Washington 64
Chicago 87, Washington 85
Tulsa 84, Conn. 76, ovt.
Minnesota 84, Atlanta 82
!-Washington 66, San Antonio 63
Chicago 71, Washington 68
!-Los Angeles 80, San Antonio 78
Phoenix 71, Atlanta 68
!-Connecticut 67, Seattle 66
Phoenix 89, Chicago 87, ovt.
Connecticut 78, Minnesota 77
Indiana 75, Connecticut 73
New York 81, Seattle 77
Chicago 97, Atlanta 92
Los Angeles 75, Phoenix 70
!-Atlanta 76, Los Angeles 72
Indiana 83, Tulsa 80
New York 79, Washington 76
New York 75, Phoenix 73
Phoenix 94, New York 91
Los Angeles 98, Tulsa 93
Chicago 77, Connecticut 74
Tulsa 93, Seattle 89
!-San Antonio 73, Seattle 71
!-Atlanta 82, Washington 79
!-Connecticut 80, Los Angeles 76
San Antonio 76, Phoenix 71
Chicago 100, Atlanta 96
!-Washington 84, Los Angeles 80
Atlanta 74, Chicago 73
!-Atlanta 64, Washington 61
Indiana 77, Phoenix 74
Connecticut 67, Chicago 65
!-Atlanta 72, San Antonio 69
!-Connecticut 75, Atlanta 70
Washington 67, New York 62
!-Washington 73, Connecticut 68
Phoenix 76, San Antonio 71

Reverse Overall Performance in Close Games

Team L W

Seattle 4-0
San Antonio 4-2
Los Angeles 4-4
Washington 6-4
Atlanta 8-5
Connecticut 5-4
Indiana 1-4

Reverse Close Game Performance Against Other Lottery Contenders

Team L W

San Antonio 3-1
Los Angeles 3-2
Washington 2-3
Seattle 1-0
Connecticut 0-3
Atlanta 1-4

Reverse Overall Performance Against Other Lottery Contenders

Team L W GMRL
San Antonio 10-4 2
Los Angeles 9-4 2
Connecticut 4-8 1
Seattle 6-8 1
Atlanta 4-7 3
Washington 4-7 3

GMRL-Games Remaining Against Lottery Contenders

That’s it for now.

-- Mel




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