Womhoops Guru

Mel Greenberg covered college and professional women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he worked for 40 plus years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather," as well as induction into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Guru Report: Updated Mining For 33 At-Large Squads

(Guru's note: Below this post are complete conference roundups and a Tuesday schedule breakout. If you are in Melgreenberg.com, click Mel's blog to get to them all.-- Mel).

By Mel Greenberg

So now that the Guru caught up and we know a little more about how the dynamic is shaping up here’s another look at finding 33 at-larges and how big the bubble is.

The Guru has the long ride back to Philly but decided at least this list will give you an idea of how things look, especially since Mr. Palm was nice enough to have standings updated when the Guru returned to his room.

There are going to be three lists here though some names may be interchangeable. The first is the projected locks for at-large, the second is a hold for discussion, thus bubble, and the third is a keep around in case there are still openings.

The one-bid group has downsized in terms of second looks because the right teams won so far. But we’ll get to those.

OK – First, here’s the projected locks although in some cases the Guru will list a team he may not necessarily pick but thinks the committee will ultimately make that choice. Remember teams like duke go the automatic route so won’t be listed here.

Locks

ACC -- 5
Miami 27-4 RPI 12
Florida State 23-7 RPI 14
Maryland 23-7 RPI 13
Georgia Tech 23-10 RPI 18
North Carolina 25-8 RPI 19
-------------------------------
Atlantic 10 1
Temple 23-8 RPI 37
----------------------------
Big East 7
DePaul 27-6 RPI 11
Notre Dame 26-6 RPI 10
Rutgers 19-12 RPI 22
Marquette 23-8 RPI 26
Louisville 20-12 RPI 39
Georgetown 22-10 RPI 20
St. John’s 21-10 RPI 32
-----
Big Ten -- 3
Michigan State 26-5 RPI 16
Penn State 24-9 RPI 34
Iowa 22-8 RPI 17
---------
Big 12 -- 5
Texas A&M 25-4 RPI 5
Kansas State 20-9 RPI 41
Oklahoma 20-10 RPI 21
Iowa State 21-9 RPI 27
Texas Tech 21-9 RPI 33
----------
Pac-10 -- 2
UCLA 26-3 RPI 7
Arizona State 19-9 RPI 30
------------
SEC – 3
Kentucky 24-8 RPI 15
Georgia 31-10 RPI 36
Vanderbilt 20-11 RPI 31
-------
That gives us 26 Locks and we need 7 more teams so here’s list two:

Stronger-Mild Bubbles

Atlantic 10 – 2
Dayton 21-11 RPI 44
Duquesne 22-8 RPI 52
-------------------------
Big East – 1
West Virginia 23-9 RPI 28
-----------------------
Big 10 – 2
Michigan 17-12 RPI 53
Purdue 20-11 RPI 48
------
Big 12 – 1
Texas 18-12 RPI 33
--------
PAC-10 – 1
Southern Cal 18-11 RPI 38
--------
That gives us 7, which only brings the overall to the 33.

Which means if we were right on the money we could stop, howevr, we know other teams will be discussed and there’s the pothole, which the Guru will get to the end.

So let’s go to the next group and remember things maybe interchangeable where this is really getting done.

Deeper Hunting
At this point you know the conferences so it will be a cleaner look to just list the other teams.

Boston College 18-12 RPI 67
Syracuse 22-9 RPI 56
LSU 19-13 RPI 50

That’s three more, which is only a surplus of three.

But now there’s the uh oh, teams in the one-bid leagues everyone on the cusp needs to cheer for so as not to foul the waters.

One-Bid Reps

CAA – James Madison 23-7 RPI 35
C-USA - Houston 25-4 RPI 24
Horizon - Wis.-Green Bay 29-1 RPI 25
Sun Belt – Middle Tennessee 23-7 RPI 46*
WAC – Louisiana Tech 23-6 RPI 29

Middle Tennessee has already lost and we know the tragedy involved so pencil the squad in as probably part of the discussion among the group of teams after the locks and it means just one bump to accommodate MTSU if the committee goes that way.

So that’s it until we see what Tuesday brings to the fore during the second week of conference play leading to next Monday
night’s selection announcements.

-- Mel

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great stuff Mel,

I disagree on two teams.
I wouldnt say ASU is a lock, more like a strong middle bubble team to me. Should they lose round one in the Pac 10 tournament they could drop out. Oregon State has lost twice to ASU this year, but by 3 and 5 points so an upset could be there.
Michigan should be a "deeper hurting team". They have 4 bad losses(Minn-2, Detroit, and Illinois) and only 17 wins. They did beat "The OSU" twice but both of those were when "The OSU" were in a 5 win in 13 game span. Losing in the first round of the Big Ten was bad for Michigan.

Those 5 remaining mid major, one team bids will be big to the bubbles.

The MTSU situation is a tough call. In normal years they would not be asked. Dont forget if they are invited some other team is left out. It should be decided on the court, not the heart.

Keep up the good work.

A faithful west coast reader.

IM in OC

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